Today's Reading Eagle. Sorry Dr. Curtin and Mr. Falcone you two are just speculating the study does have experience and people trained in predicting population growth behind it plus a great track record. After 5 years who knows but for the next few years it is probably very accurate. Doesn't matter now why the High School was built it was and now we have to live with it. Long term readers know we predicted the same results 5 years ago, when we said the High School wasn't needed, when the board at the time confused a short term population bubble with long term growth.
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By Phoebe Sweet Reading Eagle
More homes will be built and more people will move into the Brandywine Heights School District, but that doesn't necessarily mean more students will fill the schools.
In fact, enrollment in Brandywine schools is expected to drop over the next decade, according to a draft of a Pennsylvania Economy League study.
Birthrates in the district, which are at some of the lowest levels in 35 years, will impact enrollment, the study showed.
“There's more to your future enrollment than population and housing units,” said Charles W. Watters of the economy league, a nonprofit research firm based in Wilkes-Barre.
“What everyone has to realize is you've had growth over the last five to 10 years ... and these declines (in enrollment) you've been seeing are nothing new,” Watters recently told the school board.
But Dr. John P. Curtin, Brandywine superintendent, and some residents said they're not sure the economy league figures are entirely accurate.
“If you take the numbers exactly as presented by the PEL report, it looks like we're going to have a significant decline in student population over the next five years,” Curtin said. “I don't believe the numbers really reflect what's going to be happening in the school district, with new housing projects.”
The study predicted construction on several large developments planned in Longswamp Township would not begin until nearly 2010 and would be built out over 15 to 20 years.
But Curtin said he thinks the projects will begin much sooner.
“I think they are going to move as quickly as they can,” he said of developers.
Curtin said the district commissioned the study to assist in decision-making about school closings and construction.
Floyd Falcone, a co-founder of the Taxpayers Association of Brandywine Heights, also is skeptical of the economy league's numbers.
“It's primarily speculation,” Falcone said. “I just think that they were wrong. Reality is going to be very, very different from what they think is going to happen.”
Falcone said development in Longswamp Township will result in more children early in the next decade, which could mean the school board will want to build another school.
But Watters said the economy league has done about 100 projects similar to the Brandywine study. Researchers have checked their numbers against more than 600 actual outcomes.
Accuracy rates have been within plus or minus 2.59 percentage points within five years of their studies, he said. Rates were within 3.71 percentage points over 10 years.
The $14,000 Brandywine study, however, is still a draft, and the school district will have the opportunity to submit comments.
Falcone said that if the economy league's numbers are right and enrollment continues to drop, he wants to know why the $31 million high school that was completed in 2003 was necessary.
Curtin said existing enrollment at the high school and middle school made the project necessary, although he was not superintendent when the high school project was approved.
The new high school, he said, also brings the district in line with today's standards in technology and programming.